RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF VERTICAL MOVEMENTS AND MAJOR EARTHQUAKES IN THE CAUCASUS (1925–2023)
Keywords:
Caucasus,, vertical crustal movements, orogenic processes, geodetic leveling, GNSS,, InSAR,, seismicity,, seismic hazard, geodynamics, tectonic deformationAbstract
В данном исследовании представлен ретроспективный анализ вертикальных движений земной коры на Кавказе за период 1925–2023 гг., основанный на геодезическом нивелировании, данных GNSS и спутниковой интерферометрии (InSAR). С помощью картирования были выявлены пространственно-временные закономерности поднятия и опускания поверхности, отражающие развитие орогенетических процессов в регионе. Установлено, что центральная часть Кавказа на протяжении всего периода характеризовалась стабильным поднятием (до 10–12 мм/год), в то время как периферийные зоны демонстрируют опускание различной интенсивности. Сравнительный анализ сейсмичности выявил корреляцию между аномальными вертикальными деформациями и очагами сильных землетрясений, подтверждая их возможную роль в качестве индикаторов сейсмической опасности. Особое внимание уделено корреляции фаз вертикальных тектонических движений с крупными сейсмическими событиями XX–XXI веков, включая землетрясения в Армении, Дагестане, Грузии, а также в прилегающих районах Турции и Ирана. Результаты подчеркивают необходимость комплексного мониторинга с использованием современных геодезических методов и методов дистанционного зондирования для оценки сейсмического риска на Кавказе.
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