NEW REALITIES OF DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT IN AZERBAIJAN:STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND STRATEGIC CHALLENGES

Abstract

This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the structural transformation of demographic development in Azerbaijan over the past decade (2014–2025) and to identify, on a scientific basis, the strategic challenges facing the country. The methodological framework combines comparative analysis, statistical analysis, and a systemic approach, drawing on official data from the State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan alongside analytical reports from international organizations such as the United Nations, the World Bank, the World Health Organization, and the OECD. The analysis reveals that although the country's total population
continues to grow, the pace of growth has slowed markedly: the natural increase rate declined roughly threefold between 2014 and 2024, driven primarily by a sustained decline in the birth rate. At the
same time, the age structure of the population is undergoing profound change — the share of children is shrinking while the proportion of older persons continues to rise, reflecting a transition to a new phase of demographic change. Analysis of working-age mortality reveals a substantial gender gap and indicates that the long-term effects of the pandemic have not yet fully dissipated. At the same time, the growing share of the educated population, particularly those with higher education, points to a strengthening of human capital in qualitative terms. The findings suggest that future demographic policy should focus not merely on increasing population size but on developing human capital, strengthening the family institution, and adopting an active-ageing model. The article argues for the need to align demographic processes more closely with macroeconomic policy.