The political interests and balancing attempts of the US in Turkey-Iran relations

Abstract

The geopolitical rivalry between Turkey and Iran has become increasingly tense in recent years. Although the two countries have different political orientations, priorities, and conflicting interests, over the past decade, both have managed to curb their rivalry and establish business ties, largely due to the regional climate in the Middle East following Donald Trump's victory in the US election. The significant trade relations between the two countries have primarily been based on Turkey's purchases of expensive Iranian natural gas and crude oil over the years.
However, trade between the two countries has been declining in recent years. The areas that once united Turkey and Iran have started to diminish since 2016, and more importantly, since US President Joe Biden took office, Turkey has been expanding its relations with Iran’s regional rivals. These developments raise the possibility of more open competition between Tehran and Turkey in the coming period, which could manifest itself in areas ranging from Syria and Iraq to the South Caucasus. While the rapprochement between Iran and the West, particularly Iran and the US, brings short-term economic benefits to Turkey, in the long term, it could increase Iran’s regional influence at Turkey’s expense and harm its strategic interests in the region.
The United States and the European Union have eased economic sanctions on Iran after resolving uncertainties regarding the centrifuge, the most sensitive issue of uranium enrichment. Turkey has long sought to build stronger trade ties with Iran, but its efforts have been hindered by economic sanctions imposed on Iran. Turkey's desire to establish trade relations with Iran has drawn criticism from Western countries. However, after Iran and the West cooperated in recent years and sanctions were eased, Turkey may take advantage of the opportunity to increase its foreign trade and access energy sources at easier and more affordable prices. Some analysts believe that Iran-West cooperation, especially Iran-US cooperation, may bring short-term benefits to Turkey's economy, but in the long term, it could harm Turkey's strategic interests. This is because such rapprochement may lead to Iran’s growing influence in the region at the expense of Turkey’s own influence.
Our study examines the US political interests in regulating Turkish-Iranian relations and the historical context of existing political relations between the three countries. The main objective of the study is to review the current relations and analyze the development trends in the coming periods.